“Dad, what if our life is actually just a dream?” – Ethan Gabler, age 5
Out of the blue my son asked that question last night,
incidentally as I was helping him clean his butt and I guess he felt the need
to make some small talk. “Then, this life isn’t real” he proceeded to say. How do you respond to that? I just answered
with another question – “What happens when we wake up?” and we quickly moved on
to something else.
I could have asked him, “how do we know anything is real?” Or,
“what about all the things we experience could possibly not be real?” And, “what
factors could influence our perception of what is real?” Is it just the
chemicals in our brains, or could there be other influences altering our reality
with deliberate intention?
Had me and my 5 year old continued this discussion I would
have referred him to a 1993 essay written by our author titled, The Coming
Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era
A prediction.
By 2030, we will have the technological means to create
superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events
be guided so that we may survive? These
questions must be investigated. Some possible answers (and some further
dangers) are sure to be discovered.
What is The Singularity?
Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly
steady curve in the last few decades. Based largely on this trend, the creation of
greater than human intelligence is inevitable
· - The development of computers that are
"awake" and superhumanly intelligent.
· - Large computer networks (and their associated
users) may "wake up" as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
· - Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate
that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
· - Biological science may find ways to improve upon
the natural human intellect.
What are the consequences of this event?
It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth
century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last
invention that man need make.
It is a point where our models must be discarded and a new
reality rules. As we move closer and closer to this point, it will loom vaster
and vaster over human affairs till the notion becomes a commonplace. Yet when
it finally happens it may still be a great surprise and a greater unknown.
But this does not pursue its most disturbing consequences.
Any intelligent machine of this sort would not be humankind's "tool"
-- any more than humans are the tools of rabbits or robins or chimpanzees.
Can the Singularity be Avoided?
Well, maybe it won't happen at all. But if the technological
Singularity can happen, it will
If the Singularity cannot be prevented or confined, just
how bad could the Post-Human era be?
Well ... pretty bad. The physical extinction of the human
race is one possibility. Yet physical extinction may not be the scariest possibility.
After reading the full essay to my son in bite size pieces
before bed every night over the course of 2 weeks, I would then start reading him
our next Hugo award winning novel, written by the same author as the essay. I would read it one chapter at a time each night before bed, before
he would close his eyes and enter his own alternate reality. This book would describe a new
information age in which the virtual and the real are a seamless continuum,
layers of reality built on digital views seen by a single person or millions,
depending on your choice. A consensus reality, made possible by the singularity.